Inflation in the NHL?
This year there has been an increase in the need for defenseman. This differs from every other year because the focus is now on an offensive defenseman, or a puck moving defenseman. Because of increased need for offense, the salaries are beginning to increase more and more for these defensemen and forwards.
To examine what the basis for these salaries are, I ran a regression and included the number of games played, goals, assists, points, and the player’s plus/minus rating. Since the game is being played in an offense concentrated way, these statistics were the best for understanding why the salaries are raising and the players are demanding more.
After running the regression, all the r-squares were fairly low, but points and assists were the highest of all the categories. This would make sense because this is what many of the general managers are looking for in the players. What strikes me as odd is the r-squared of the plus/minus. This is the lowest of all the categories. Since the plus/minus is the best way to understand how a player is on both sides of the puck (when only looking at statistics), one would think that this r-squared would be the highest. There are quite a few players who are making a large amount of money and have a very low plus/minus rating.
When just looking at the numbers, it is clear which players are producing the most offense. Brain Campbell (defensemen) and Marian Hossa (right wing) were the top two free agents on the market. Because of their offensive abilities, they were both able to command over seven million dollars in salary. They both are among the leaders in all categories except plus/minus. Campbell has a decent plus/minus at eight, but Hossa is at negative fourteen. This number presents the question, are you really willing to gain a player for offense if he is going to be a defensive reliability?
Where basing salaries on offensive abilities becomes a problem is when a team signs an unproven defensemen to a large salary. The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Jeff Fingers to a contract worth 3.5 million dollars a year. Last year Fingers played for the Colorado Avalanche. During the regular season, he had a good plus/minus, but his offensive production was nowhere near 3.5 million dollars worth. This increase in salary is driving up numbers, and it is making it hard for other teams to sign there restricted and unrestricted free agents.
The deal Toronto gave Fingers looks ridiculous when comparing it to other defensemen near his production levels. Randy Jones at 2.75 million and Brookes Laich at 2 million are both making considerably less money. Both of these defensemen were able to put up over thirty points and were signed for less money.
The NHL needs to be concerned able these rising salaries. Player’s salaries are inflating fast and if they are not careful, they are going to start to lose players to the KHL (an international hockey league). Many times, it is a result of one player being sign for more then he his is worth, such as Jeff Fingers. Once one player receives this bump in salary, everyone else believes they are worth the same. If the player’s salaries keep inflating, the NHL is not going to be able to sign star players and they may lose them to international leagues. This will not help a league which is already lacking the support it needs. With increased salaries and the decline in the value of the dollar, many players many start to look overseas to play hockey.
To stop the salaries from increasing, it is on the General Managers. Many managers, such as Paul Holmgren (Philadelphia) and Ken Holland (Detroit), have done a great job in spreading the salary and signing the necessary players. Others are thinking too brash and are signing players to large contracts, which the player has not earned nor has he shown the potential for. This needs to change.
This issue is going to make it harder for the NHL to survive. General Managers need to be more careful with how they are spending their money and where they are spending it. In my opinion, it would be smarter to look are plus/minus to get a better idea of the player’s offensive and defensive abilities. Then, after this is examined, look at the players other statistics to see how they can produce for the team. This will help teams spend wisely and create more space for up and coming prospects.
2008 NHL Free Agents
GP
G
A
P
+/-
Avery
LW
3,875,000
57
15
18
33
6
Bertuzzi
LW
1,950,000
68
14
26
40
8
Blake
D
5,000,000
71
9
22
31
-19
Campbell
D
7,142,000
83
8
54
62
8
Carter
C
5,000,000
82
29
24
53
6
Commodore
D
3,750,000
67
3
11
14
-7
Cooke
LW
1,200,000
78
10
13
23
1
Demitra
LW
4,000,000
68
15
39
54
9
Ehrhoff
D
3,100,000
77
1
21
22
9
Fedorov
C
4,000,000
68
11
30
41
-5
Fedotenko
RW
2,250,000
67
16
17
33
-9
Finger
D
3,500,000
72
8
11
19
12
Foote
D
3,000,000
75
1
15
16
2
Gaustad
C
2,300,000
82
10
26
36
-4
Gorges
D
1,500,000
62
0
9
9
0
Green
D
5,250,000
82
18
38
56
6
Hagman
LW
3,000,000
82
27
14
41
4
Hainsey
D
4,500,000
78
8
24
32
-7
Holik
C
2,500,000
82
15
19
34
-14
Hossa
RW
7,450,000
72
29
37
66
-14
Huselius
LW
4,750,000
81
25
41
66
10
Jones, M.
D
550,000
45
0
2
2
-13
Jones, R.
D
2,750,000
71
5
26
31
8
Kalinin
D
2,100,000
46
1
7
8
-7
Kostitsyn
LW
3,750,000
78
26
27
53
15
Laich
C
2,033,333
82
21
16
37
-3
Laraque
RW
1,500,000
71
4
9
13
0
Liles
D
4,200,000
81
6
26
32
2
Malone
RW
4,500,000
77
27
24
51
14
Mara
D
1,950,000
61
1
16
17
1
Miettinen
RW
2,333,333
69
15
19
34
4
Morrison
C
2,750,000
39
9
16
25
-3
Naslund
LW
4,000,000
82
25
30
55
-7
Nolan
RW
2,750,000
77
16
16
32
6
Orpik
D
3,750,000
78
1
10
11
11
Perry
RW
5,320,000
70
29
25
54
12
Recchi
RW
1,250,000
72
14
34
48
-18
Redden
D
6,500,000
80
6
32
38
11
Rolston
LW
5,062,500
81
31
28
59
-1
Ryder
RW
4,000,000
70
14
17
31
-4
Salvador
D
2,900,000
64
1
10
11
12
Satan
RW
3,500,000
80
16
25
41
-11
Smith
D
2,600,000
77
1
9
10
-4
Stajan
C
1,750,000
82
16
17
33
-11
Streit
D
4,100,000
81
13
49
62
-6
Stuart
D
3,750,000
82
4
4
8
2
Tucker
RW
2,250,000
74
18
16
34
-8
Vrbata
RW
3,000,000
76
27
29
56
6
Walker
D
600,000
43
1
1
2
-3
Weight
C
4,300,000
67
10
15
25
4
Witt
D
3,000,000
59
2
5
7
-8
Wolski
LW
2,800,000
77
18
30
48
10
*Number gained from www.hockeybuzz.com
*This list does not include all free agents for various reasons
Slope
56272.12
61283.99
80900.58
49416.22
40876.22
Intercept
-695754.07
2591953.28
1648200.63
1695907.73
3347784.14
R-Squared
0.16
0.15
0.38
0.35
0.06
About the Author:
Article Source: ArticlesBase.com – Inflation in the Nhl?
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